By Theda Skocpol
The demise of the Tea Party was loudly announced
right after Congress voted on October 16 to lift the debt ceiling and reopen the
federal government. “Finally! The Republican Fever Is Broken,” exulted
Jamelle Bouie atThe Daily Beast, while Washington Post
columnist Eugene Robinson proclaimed
President Obama’s “victory” over the Tea Party just as “devastating as Sherman’s
march through the South.” With most Americans telling pollsters they do not like
the Tea Party and its tactics, the GOP will eventually have to pivot back to the
median voter, explained
Noah Feldman in his Bloombergcolumn, “How the Tea Party Will Die.”
Other optimists placed greater emphasis on the supposed new
will of business interests and Republican Party elders to recapture party
control. Offering reassurance, supporters of Republican Speaker of the House
John Boehner told the pre-eminent inside-the-Beltway gossip site
Politico that their guy was more effectively in charge of his raucous
GOP caucus following the shutdown debacle. Karl Rove vowed to block far-right
Tea Party challengers in GOP primaries, and the Chamber of Commerce started to
make noises about supporting some supposed “moderates” against Tea Party
candidates in 2014 GOP primaries.
But
we have heard all this before. The Tea Party was supposed to be dead and the
GOP on the way to moderate repositioning after Obama’s victory and Democratic
congressional gains in November 2012. Yet less than a year after post-election
GOP soul-searching supposedly occurred, radical forces pulled almost all GOP
House and Senate members into at least going along with more than two weeks of
extortion tactics to try to force President Obama and Senate Democrats to gut
the Affordable Care Act and grant a long laundry list of other GOP priorities
suspiciously similar to the platform on which the party had run and lost in
2012. The Tea Party’s hold on the GOP persists beyond each burial ceremony.
In 2011, Vanessa Williamson and I published our
book The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism, which
used a full panoply of research—from interviews and local observations to media
and website analysis and tracking of national surveys—to explain the dynamics of
this radical movement. We showed how bottom-up and top-down forces intersect to
give the Tea Party both leverage over the Republican Party and the clout to push
national politics sharply to the right.
At the grassroots, volunteer activists formed hundreds of local Tea Parties,
meeting regularly to plot public protests against the Obama Administration and
place steady pressure on GOP organizations and candidates at all levels. At
least half of all GOP voters sympathize with this Tea Party upsurge. They are
overwhelmingly older, white, conservative-minded men and women who fear that
“their country” is about to be lost to mass immigration and new extensions of
taxpayer-funded social programs (like the Affordable Care Act) for low- and
moderate-income working-aged people, many of whom are black or brown. Fiscal
conservatism is often said to be the top grassroots Tea Party priority, but
Williamson and I did not find this to be true. Crackdowns on immigrants, fierce
opposition to Democrats, and cuts in spending for the young were the overriding
priorities we heard from volunteer Tea Partiers, who are often, themselves,
collecting costly Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' benefits to which
they feel fully entitled as Americans who have “paid their dues” in lifetimes of
hard work.
On the other end of the organizational spectrum, big-money funders and
free-market advocacy organizations used angry grassroots protests to expand
their email lists and boost longstanding campaigns to slash taxes, shrink social
spending, privatize Medicare and Social Security, and eliminate or block
regulations (including carbon controls). In 2009, groups such as FreedomWorks,
Americans for Prosperity, the Club for Growth, and Tea Party Express (a renamed
conservative GOP political action committee) leapt on the bandwagon; more
recently, the Senate Conservative Action Fund and Heritage Action have greatly
bolstered the leveraging capacities of the Tea Party as a whole. Elite
activities ramped up after many Tea Party legislators were elected in 2010.
Here is the key point: Even though there is no one center of Tea Party
authority—indeed, in some ways because there is no one organized
center—the entire gaggle of grassroots and elite organizations amounts to a
pincer operation that wields money and primary votes to exert powerful pressure
on Republican officeholders and candidates. Tea Party influence does
not depend on general popularity at all. Even as most Americans have
figured out that they do not like the Tea Party or its methods, Tea Party clout
has grown in Washington and state capitals. Most legislators and candidates are
Nervous Nellies, so all Tea Party activists, sympathizers, and funders have had
to do is recurrently demonstrate their ability to knock off seemingly
unchallengeable Republicans (ranging from Charlie Crist in Florida to Bob
Bennett of Utah to Indiana’s Richard Lugar). That grabs legislators’ attention
and results in either enthusiastic support for, or acquiescence to, obstructive
tactics. The entire pincer operation is further enabled by various right-wing
tracking organizations that keep close count of where each legislator stands on
“key votes”—including even votes on amendments and the tiniest details of
parliamentary procedure, the kind of votes that legislative leaders used to
orchestrate in the dark.
The 2010 elections were a high watermark for Tea Party funders and voters.
Amid intense public frustration at the slow economic recovery, only two of five
U.S. voters went to the polls. The electorate skewed toward older, whiter,
wealthier conservatives; and this low turnout allowed fired-up Tea Party
Republicans to score many triumphs in the House and state legislatures. And the
footholds gained are not easily lost. Once solid blocs of Tea Party supporters
or compliant legislators are ensconced in office, outside figures like Dick
Armey of FreedomWorks (in 2011) and Jim DeMint of Heritage Action (in 2013)
appoint themselves de facto orchestrators, taking control away from elected GOP
leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.
In the latest such maneuver during the summer of 2013, radical-right Texas
Senator Ted Cruz put himself forward as a bold Tea Party strategist calling for
a renewed all-out crusade to kill Obamacare long after it was assured survival
by the Supreme Court and the 2012 presidential election. With his strong ties to
far-right funders and ideologues, plus a self-assured, even arrogant,
pugnaciousness that thrills much of the GOP electorate, Cruz could direct a
chunk of House Republicans to pressure a weak Boehner into proceeding with the
government shutdown and debt brinkmanship. Apologists say Boehner was
“reluctant,” but what difference does that make? He went along.
After the immediate effort flopped and caused most Americans to further sour
on Republicans, Cruz remained unbowed. And why not? After all, Cruz gained
near-total name recognition and sky-high
popularity among Tea Party voters. He now appears regularly on television,
and his antics have allowed elite Tea Party forces to lock in draconian
reductions in federal spending for coming rounds of budget struggles. Americans
may resent the Tea Party, but they are also losing ever more faith in the
federal government—a big win for anti-government saboteurs. Popularity and
“responsible governance” are not the goals of Tea Party forces, and such
standards should not be used to judge the accomplishments of those who aim to
undercut, block, and delay—even as Tea Party funders remain hopeful about
holding their own or making further gains in another low-turnout midterm
election in November 2014.
The bottom line is sobering. Anyone concerned
about the damage Tea Party forces are inflicting on American politics needs to
draw several hard-headed conclusions.
For one, at least three successive national election defeats will be
necessary to even begin to break the determination and leverage of Tea Party
adherents. Grassroots Tea Partiers see themselves in a last-ditch effort to save
“their country,” and big-money ideologues are determined to undercut Democrats
and sabotage active government. They are in this fight for the long haul.
Neither set of actors will stand down easily or very soon.
Also worth remembering is that “moderate Republicans” barely exist right now.
Close to two-thirds of House Republicans voted against bipartisan efforts to
reopen the federal government and prevent U.S. default on loan obligations, and
Boehner has never repudiated such extortionist tactics. Tea Partiers may not
call for another shutdown right away, but they will continue to be able to draw
most GOP legislators and leaders into aggressive efforts to obstruct and delay.
In the electorate, moreover, more than half of GOP voters sympathize with the
Tea Party and cheer on obstructionist tactics, and the remaining Republicans and
Republican-leaning independents are disorganized and divided in their views of
the likes of Ted Cruz.
Speaking of which, Cruz is very well positioned to garner
unified Tea Party support in the 2016 GOP presidential primaries. During the
last election cycle, no far-right candidate ever consolidated sustained
grassroots Tea Party support, as those voters hopped from Rick Perry to Herman
Cain to Newt Gingrich to Rick Santorum. But this time, Cruz may very well enjoy
unified and enthusiastic grassroots Tea Party support from the beginning of the
primary election season. In the past, less extreme GOP candidates have always
managed to garner the presidential nomination, but maybe not this time. And even
if a less extreme candidate finally squeaks through, Cruz will set much of the
agenda for Republicans heading into 2016.
When it comes to “reining in” the Tea Party, business associations and
spokespeople may talk bigger than they will act. They have lots to say to
reporters, but they show few signs of mounting the kind of organized, sustained
efforts it would take to counter Tea Party enthusiasm and funding. Groups like
the Chamber of Commerce have spent decades using right-wing energy to help elect
Republicans, who, once elected, are supposed to focus on tax cuts and
deregulation. It used to be relatively easy to con Christian-right voters with
flashy election symbolism and then soft-pedal their preferences once Republicans
took office. Today’s far right is unmistakably another cup of tea. Even as
business funders realize this, however, they will be tempted to keep replaying
the old strategies, because turning to Democrats will usually not seem
acceptable, and it will be almost impossible in many states and districts to
mount GOP primary challenges from the middle-right without improving Democratic
prospects in general election contests.
Finally, Democrats need to get over thinking that opinion polls and media
columns add up to real political gains. Once the October 2013 shutdown ended in
supposed total victory for President Obama and his party, many Democrats adopted
a cocky swagger and started talking about ousting the House GOP in 2014. But a
clear-eyed look shows that Tea Party obstruction remains powerful and has
achieved victories that continue to stymie Democratic efforts to govern
effectively—a necessary condition for Democrats to win enthusiastic, sustained
voter support for the future, including in midterm elections. Our debates about
federal budgets still revolve around degrees of imposed austerity. Government
shutdowns and repeated partisan-induced “crises” have greatly undercut U.S.
economic growth and cost up to a year’s worth of added jobs. Real national
challenges—fighting global warming, improving education, redressing extreme
economic inequalities, rebuilding and improving economic infrastructure—go
unaddressed as extreme GOP obstructive capacities remain potent in Washington
and many state capitals.
True, the events of October 2013 helped millions of middle-of-the-road
voters—and even quite a few complacent political reporters—grasp the dangers of
the sabotage-oriented radicalism in today’s Republican Party. But it will take a
long and dogged struggle to root out radical obstructionism on the right, and
the years ahead could yet see Tea Partiers succeed by default. Unless non-Tea
Party Republicans, independents, and Democrats learn both to defeat and to work
around anti-government extremism—finding ways to do positive things for the
majority of ordinary citizens along the way—Tea Party forces will still win in
the end. They will triumph just by hanging on long enough to cause most
Americans to give up in disgust on our blatantly manipulated democracy and our
permanently hobbled government.
This article originally appeared in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas,
an Atlantic partner publication.
Together, the pastors begin to pray, asking for divine help in shaping public opinion: "Soften them.... Open them to you … for your purpose.... Claim the promise made to Moses."
It is a curious warmup for a technical conference about an oil pipeline.
But like many other environmentalists concerned that America is dawdling as the world burns, these ministers, each a leader in efforts to mobilize churchgoers against climate change, see Steyer as, quite literally, a godsend.
Heady stuff, even for a 56-year-old billionaire.
For years, liberals have fretted about the power of ultra-wealthy people determined to use their billions to advance their political views. Charles and David Koch, in particular, have ranked high in the demonology of the American left.
But in Steyer, liberals have a billionaire on their side. Like the Kochs, he is building a vast political network and seizing opportunities provided by loose campaign finance rules to insert himself into elections nationwide. In direct contrast to them, he has made opposition to fossil fuels and the campaign against global warming the center of his activism.
The former financier is an unlikely green icon. Steyer built his fortune with a San Francisco-based hedge fund of the sort that drove protesters to occupy Wall Street. Some of the investments that landed him on the Forbes list of America's wealthiest went into companies he now says are destroying the planet. Adversaries and, in private, at least some erstwhile allies call him a dilettante.
Yet, unlike many others in a parade of super-rich Californians who have made forays into politics, Steyer has proved himself skilled at bringing attention to his cause and himself.
He has amassed impressive victories: helping persuade recession-weary Californians to pass a $1-billion annual tax hike; creating a gusher of money for energy efficiency; and this year playing a star role in destabilizing plans for the Keystone XL Pipeline with a campaign that has sown doubt about the project inside the administration and mobilized influential Democratic donors and business leaders against it.
Opponents of the pipeline, designed to move hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil daily along a 1,200-mile route from Canada's tar sands to Gulf Coast refineries, say it would contribute greatly to global warming.
"Normally, in the American system, people yell and scream and holler and nothing happens, and then something happens and it gets fixed," Steyer said in a recent interview. "That happened with acid rain, with the hole in the ozone layer. That is normally what happens."
Global warming, "for whatever reason, was not getting addressed," he said. "And it is the biggest issue."
It was Keystone that brought Steyer and the pastors together at Georgetown. In June, President Obama said in a speech at the university that he could approve the pipeline project, which needs a federal license because it crosses an international boundary, only if backers could prove it would not contribute to global warming.
Six months later, Steyer returned to the campus with a panel of anti-Keystone scientists to host a conference aimed at proving that test could not be met.
John Podesta, President Clinton's former chief of staff, who recently joined the Obama White House as a senior advisor, says he used to give Keystone a 90% chance of winning approval from the administration. Then Steyer and grass-roots activists like Bill McKibben of 350.org launched their campaigns against it. Now, he gives it even odds, Podesta said in an interview shortly before his new post was announced.
"I doubt the President travels very much where he doesn't hear about this now, particularly with core supporters," Podesta said. "What he hears has got to make him take a few deep breaths before moving forward with it."
Steyer "is good at organizing the people the president knows and cares about," he added.
Defenders of the project call Steyer and fellow anti-Keystone activists misguided.
"It is an absolute calamity that it was not approved long ago," former Secretary of State George P. Shultz said of the Keystone project. Shultz was Steyer's co-chairman on the $1-billion tax hike campaign and another successful effort to protect California's global warming law against a ballot initiative, but he disagrees deeply with Steyer about the pipeline.
"With energy, we always need to keep in mind three objectives: security, economics, and the environment," he said. "Oil that comes from Keystone does not go through the Strait of Hormuz. It is secure oil."
But fellow opponents of Keystone hail Steyer's efforts. Steyer "understands that climate change is an existential challenge we face," Gov. Jerry Brown said in an e-mail. "He's doing something about it."
All that, plus a large team of consultants, has built and promoted the Steyer brand. There is constant speculation about whether he plans to run for governor. Or maybe the U.S. Senate. The White House also has its eye on him.
"There was serious discussion about him joining the administration," Podesta said.
What remains less clear, however, is whether Steyer has made progress on his larger goal of persuading average Americans that climate change is a menace that should drive their choices at the voting booth.
"If you are not talking about it at the kitchen table, you don't really care about it," Steyer said over lunch at a casual restaurant popular with Washington's moneyed elite. There were plenty of stylish suits, designer accessories and bling to be found there. Just not on Steyer, who dined in his tired tweed jacket, worn khakis and signature unfashionable argyle tie.
About a third of Americans polled say they see global warming as a "very serious" problem — a figure that has not changed much in recent years, according to surveys by the Pew Research Center.
A major focus of Steyer's political operation, which is run by Chris Lehane, a veteran of the Clinton White House, has been to prove that climate change can play a decisive role in elections. This fall his group, NextGen Climate Action, put an eye-popping $8 million into Virginia's election for governor, which Lehane called a "beta test to inject climate into an election and see if it will play a decisive role."
The results were mixed. The campaign hit hard against the Republican candidate, Ken Cuccinelli. It polled, it canvassed, and it scrambled to track down climate-anxious voters who normally sit out off-year elections.
"We flagged voters who are climate voters and targeted them," Lehane said. "We are confident we turned out a minimum of 65,000 of them."
Cuccinelli lost by less than 60,000 votes. But Lehane's claim that voters activated by NextGen made the difference is inherently hard to prove.
The Republican was a weak candidate — an outspoken conservative in a moderate state. The election took place just days after Cuccinelli's fellow Republicans in Washington shut down the federal government, endangering the livelihoods of the federal workers who make up a large share of Virginia's voters. The margin of victory for Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic nominee, was not much smaller than the one Barack Obama enjoyed over Mitt Romney a year earlier.
Earlier in the year, Steyer intervened in the race for Massachusetts' open U.S. Senate seat, demanding in an open letter that one of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination "act like a real Democrat and oppose Keystone's dirty energy" by "high noon" one Friday in March or face a torrent of campaign money against him.
The ultimatum gave the candidate, Rep. Stephen F. Lynch, a former ironworker, a campaign issue: Radical California billionaire bullies local candidate. The Boston Globe editorialized that Steyer should "back off." Lynch's primary opponent, then-congressman Edward J. Markey — who ultimately won the race — asked Steyer to bow out.
Fellow environmentalists are loath to publicly criticize Steyer; many groups have actively sought his money. But some who have been in the trenches far longer privately say they see hubris behind his aw-shucks demeanor.
Steyer brushes aside such complaints. The big, established environmental groups, he says, have been doing "incredible" policy work but have a tendency to approach electoral politics with tactics more befitting of the "Yale-Harvard debating society."
"We hear an awful lot about theoretically how people would like us to engage voters," he said. "But we actually want to engage them."
evan.halper@latimes.com