The next 25 years took the nation from Bill Clinton, who famously "didn't inhale," to Barack Obama, who most emphatically did.
Now,
in just a few short years, public opinion has moved so dramatically
toward general acceptance that even those who champion legalization are
surprised at how quickly attitudes are changing and states are moving to
approve the drug — for medical use and just for fun.
It is a moment in the United States that is rife with contradictions:
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People are looking more kindly on marijuana even as science reveals
more about the drug's potential dangers, particularly for young people.
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States are giving the green light to the drug in direct defiance of a federal prohibition on its use.
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Exploration of the potential medical benefit is limited by high federal hurdles to research.
Washington policymakers seem reluctant to deal with any of it.
Richard
Bonnie, a University of Virginia law professor who worked for a
national commission that recommended decriminalizing marijuana in 1972,
sees the public taking a big leap from prohibition to a more
laissez-faire approach without full deliberation.
"It's a remarkable story historically," he says. "But as a matter of public policy, it's a little worrisome."
More than a little worrisome to those in the anti-drug movement.
"We're
on this hundred-mile-an-hour freight train to legalizing a third
addictive substance," says Kevin Sabet, a former drug policy adviser in
the Obama administration, lumping marijuana with tobacco and alcohol.
Legalization
strategist Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the Drug Policy
Alliance, likes the direction the marijuana smoke is wafting. But he
knows his side has considerable work yet to do.
"I'm constantly reminding my allies that marijuana is not going to legalize itself," he says.
BY THE NUMBERS
Eighteen
states and the District of Columbia have legalized the use of marijuana
for medical purposes since California voters made the first move in
1996. Voters in Colorado and Washington state took the next step last
year and approved pot for recreational use. Alaska is likely to vote on
the same question in 2014, and a few other states are expected to put
recreational use on the ballot in 2016.
Nearly half of adults have
tried marijuana, 12 percent of them in the past year, according to a
survey by the Pew Research Center.
Fifty-two percent of adults favor legalizing marijuana, up 11 percentage points just since 2010, according to Pew.
Sixty percent think Washington shouldn't enforce federal laws against marijuana in states that have approved its use.
STICKY ISSUES
Where
California led the charge on medical marijuana, the next chapter in
this story is being written in Colorado and Washington state.
Policymakers
there are grappling with all sorts of sticky issues revolving around
one central question:
How do you legally regulate the production,
distribution, sale and use of marijuana for recreational purposes when
federal law bans all of the above?
The Justice Department began
reviewing the matter after November's election. But seven months later,
states still are on their own.
Both sides in the debate paid close
attention when Obama said in December that "it does not make sense,
from a prioritization point of view, for us to focus on recreational
drug users in a state that has already said that under state law that's
legal."
Rep. Jared Polis, a Colorado Democrat who favors
legalization, predicts Washington will take a hands-off approach, based
on Obama's comments. But he's quick to add, "We would like to see that
in writing."
The federal government already has taken a similar approach toward users in states that have approved marijuana for medical use.
It
doesn't go after pot-smoking cancer patients or grandmas with glaucoma.
But it also has made clear that people who are in the business of
growing, selling and distributing marijuana on a large scale are subject
to potential prosecution for violations of the Controlled Substances
Act — even in states that have legalized medical use.
"A REGULATED SYSTEM"
There's a political calculus for the president, or any other politician, in all of this.
Younger
people, who tend to vote more Democratic, are more supportive of
legalizing marijuana, as are people in the West, where the libertarian
streak runs strong.
Despite increasing public acceptance of
marijuana overall, politicians know there are complications that could
come with commercializing an addictive substance. Opponents of pot are
particularly worried that legalization will result in increased use by
young people.
Sabet frames the conundrum for Obama: "Do you want
to be the President that stops a popular cause, especially a cause
that's popular within your own party? Or do you want to be the president
that enables youth drug use that will have ramifications down the
road?"
Marijuana legalization advocates offer politicians a rosier
scenario, in which legitimate pot businesses eager to keep their
operating licenses make sure not to sell to minors.
"Having a
regulated system is the only way to ensure that we're not ceding control
of this popular substance to the criminal market and to black
marketeers," says Aaron Smith, executive director of the National
Cannabis Industry Association, a trade group for legal pot businesses in
the United States.
COURSE CORRECTION
While
the federal government hunkers down, Colorado and Washington state are
moving forward on their own with regulations covering everything from
how plants will be grown to how many stores will be allowed.
Tim
Lynch, director of the libertarian Cato Institute's Project on Criminal
Justice, predicts "the next few years are going to be messy" as states
work to bring a black-market industry into the sunshine.
California's
experience with medical marijuana offers a window into potential
pitfalls that can come with wider availability of pot.
Dispensaries
for medical marijuana have proliferated in the state, and regulation
has been lax, prompting a number of cities around the state to ban
dispensaries.
In May, the California Supreme Court ruled that
cities and counties can ban medical marijuana dispensaries. A few weeks
later, Los Angeles voters approved a ballot measure that limits the
number of pot shops in the city to 135, down from an estimated high of
about 1,000.
This isn't full-scale buyer's remorse, but more a
course correction before the inevitable next push for full-on
legalization in the state.
"A NEW INDUSTRY"
Growing support for legalization doesn't mean everybody wants to light up: Barely one in 10 Americans used pot in the past year.
Those
who do want to see marijuana legalized range from libertarians who
oppose much government intervention to people who want to see an
activist government aggressively regulate marijuana production and
sales.
For some, money talks: Why let drug cartels rake in untaxed profits when a cut could go into government coffers?
There are other threads in the growing acceptance of pot.
People
think it's not as dangerous as once believed. They worry about high
school youths getting an arrest record. They see racial inequity in the
way marijuana laws are enforced. They're weary of the "war on drugs."
Opponents
counter with a 2012 study finding that regular use of marijuana during
teen years can lead to a long-term drop in IQ, and another study
indicating marijuana use can induce and exacerbate psychotic illness in
susceptible people. They question the notion that regulating pot will
bring in big money, saying revenue estimates are grossly exaggerated.
They
reject the claim that prisons are bulging with people convicted of
simple possession by citing federal statistics showing only a small
percentage of federal and state inmates are behind bars for that alone.
They
warn that baby boomers who draw on their own innocuous experiences with
pot are overlooking the much higher potency of today's marijuana.
In
2009, concentrations of THC, the psychoactive ingredient in pot,
averaged close to 10 percent in marijuana, compared with about 4 percent
in the 1980s, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
"If
marijuana legalization was about my old buddies at Berkeley smoking in
People's Park once a week, I don't think many of us would care that
much," says Sabet, who helped to found Smart Approaches to Marijuana, a
group that opposes legalization. "It's really about creating a new
industry that's going to target kids and target minorities and our
vulnerable populations just like our legal industries do today."
WHAT'S NEXT?
So how bad, or good, is pot?
J.
Michael Bostwick, a psychiatrist at the Mayo Clinic, set out to sort
through more than 100 sometimes conflicting studies after his teenage
son became addicted to pot, and turned his findings into a 22-page
article for Mayo Clinic Proceedings in 2012.
For all the talk that
smoking pot is no big deal, Bostwick says, he determined that "it was a
very big deal. There were addiction issues. There were psychosis
issues.
"But there was also this very large body of literature
suggesting that it could potentially have very valuable pharmaceutical
applications, but the research was stymied" by federal barriers.
The National Institute on Drug Abuse says research is ongoing.
Dr.
Nora Volkow, the institute's director, worries that legalizing pot will
result in increased use of marijuana by young people and impair their
brain development.
"Think about it: Do you want a nation where your young people are stoned?" she asks.
Partisans
on both sides think people in other states will keep a close eye on
Colorado and Washington as they decide what happens next.
But past predictions on pot have been wildly off base.
"Reefer
Madness," the 1936 propaganda movie that pot fans turned into a cult
classic in the 1970's, spins a tale of dire consequences "ending often in
incurable insanity."
Associated Press writers Kristen Wyatt
in Denver, Gene Johnson in Seattle, Lauran Neergaard in Washington,
D.C., and AP researcher Monika Mathur in Washington, D.C., contributed
to this report.