The Post-Trump Era
This
is a wonderful moment to be a conservative. For decades now the
Republican Party has been groaning under the Reagan orthodoxy, which was
right for the 1980's but has become increasingly obsolete. The Reagan
worldview was based on the idea that a rising economic tide would lift
all boats. But that’s clearly no longer true.
We’ve
gone from Rising Tide America to Coming Apart America. Technological
change, globalization and social and family breakdown mean that the
benefits of growth, to the extent there is growth, are not widely
shared.
Republicans
sort of recognize this reality, but they are still imprisoned in the
Reaganite model. They ask Reaganite questions, propose Reaganite
policies and have Reaganite instincts.
Now
along comes Donald Trump, an angel of destruction, to blow it all to
smithereens. He represents not only a rejection of the existing
Reaganite establishment, but also a rejection of Reaganite foreign
policy (he is less globalist) and Reaganite domestic policy (he is
friendlier to the state).
Trumpism
will not replace Reaganism, though. Trump is prompting what Thomas
Kuhn, in his theory of scientific revolutions, called a model crisis.
According
to Kuhn, intellectual progress is not steady and gradual. It’s marked
by sudden paradigm shifts. There’s a period of normal science when
everybody embraces a paradigm that seems to be working. Then there’s a
period of model drift: As years go by, anomalies accumulate and the
model begins to seem creaky and flawed.
Then
there’s a model crisis, when the whole thing collapses. Attempts to
patch up the model fail. Everybody is in anguish, but nobody knows what
to do.
That’s
where the Republican Party is right now. Everybody talks about being so
depressed about Trump. But Republicans are passive and psychologically
defeated. That’s because their conscious and unconscious mental
frameworks have just stopped working. Trump has a monopoly on audacity,
while everyone else is immobile.
But
Trump has no actual ideas or policies. There is no army of Trumpists
out there to carry on his legacy. He will almost certainly go down to a
devastating defeat, either in the general election or — God help us — as
the worst president in American history.
At
that point the G.O.P. will enter what Kuhn called the revolution phase.
During these moments you get a proliferation of competing approaches, a
willingness to try anything. People ask different questions, speak a
different language, congregate around a new paradigm that is
incommensurate with the last.
That’s
where the G.O.P. is heading. So this is a moment of anticipation. The
great question is not, Should I vote for Hillary or sit out this
campaign? The great question is, How do I prepare now for the post-Trump
era?
The
first step clearly is mental purging: casting aside many existing
mental categories and presuppositions, to shift your identity from one
with a fixed mind-set to one in which you are a seeker and open to
anything. The second step is probably embedding: going out and seeing
America again with fresh eyes and listening to American voices with
fresh ears, paying special attention to that nexus where the struggles
of Trump supporters overlap with the struggles of immigrants and
African-Americans.
This
is a moment for honesty. Valuably, Trump has exposed the rottenness of
the consultant culture, and the squirrelly way politicians now talk to
us. This is a moment for revived American nationalism. Trump’s closed,
ethnic nationalism is dominant because Iraq, globalization and broken
immigration policies have discredited the expansive open form of
nationalism that usually dominates American culture.
This
is also a moment for redefined compassion. Trump is loveless. There is
no room for reciprocity and love in his worldview. There is just winning
or losing, beating or being beaten.
It
is as if he was a person who received no love and tried to compensate
through competition. That is an ugly, freakish and untenable
representation of the human condition. Somehow the Republican Party will
have to rediscover a language of loving thy neighbor, which is a
primary ideal in our culture, and a primary longing of the heart.
This
is also a moment for sociology. Reaganism was very economic, built
around tax policies, enterprise zones and the conception of the human
being as a rational, utility-driven individual. The Adam Smith necktie
was the emblem of that movement.
It
might be time to invest in Émile Durkheim neckties, because today’s
problems relate to binding a fragmenting society, reweaving family and
social connections, relating across the diversity of a globalized world.
Homo economicus is a myth and conservatism needs a worldview that is
accurate about human nature.
We’re
going to have two parties in this country. One will be a Democratic
Party that is moving left. The other will be a Republican Party. Nobody
knows what it will be, but it’s exciting to be present at the
re-creation.