It's a very hard thing for a political party to abandon an elected fool, but they may end up doing it.
By
Jefferson Morley
While the downfall of Donald Trump is far from assured, the
signs are multiplying that the Republicans are preparing for a world in
which Trump is no longer commander-in-chief. This is not the dreaming
of the liberal resistance or the conservative #NeverTrump crowd; we’re
talking about the actions of the Republican leadership, rank and file
and Vice President Mike Pence himself.
No, the Republicans are not
going to impeach Trump, demand his resignation or invoke the 25th
Amendment to say he is incapacitated. But they are preparing escape
routes from the fallout from his dismal
poll numbers, stalled
legislative agenda and mounting
legal problems.
Six
months ago, Republicans, whatever their qualms, saw no need for such
planning. The 45th president, it was assumed, would sign into law the
agenda of the congressional Republicans. The GOP would, in return,
accommodate the president on his signature issues: jobs, immigration
crackdown, revisiting free trade agreements, and restoring friendlier
relations with Russia. With complete control of the government, the
Republican vision seemed realistic.
Fat chance. Impulsive,
unfocused and mendacious, Trump is now treated as an unpredictable
menace against whom Republicans must build defenses. These defenses can
also serve as escape routes if and when the GOP feels the need to break
with the president.
1. The Sanctions Firewall
On July 27, House and Senate Republicans
voted overwhelmingly to
impose tougher sanctions on Russia, dooming Trump's yearning to make
nice with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The president's allies
originally resisted the additional financial penalties, but caved in
under the weight of Trump's repeated lies about his campaign's contacts
with Russians and his refusal to acknowledge the U.S. intelligence
finding that Russia interfered on his behalf in the 2016 presidential
election.
Trump's identification with Russia has become so toxic
that virtually every member of his party took the opportunity to reject
it. The president can be accused of coddling Putin, but all of his
putative allies on Capitol Hill have inoculated themselves against the
charge.
2. The Sessions Firewall
Trump’s
attempts to humiliate Attorney General Jeff Sessions into quitting were a
transparent gambit to create a vacancy at the top of the Justice
Department. With the Senate out of session in August, Trump could then
make a “recess appointment” of a new AG who would not need Senate
confirmation. The new AG could then fire independent counsel Robert
Mueller, as Trump has made clear he wants to do.
In response, Senate Republicans united to
set up a procedure under
which the Senate is not formally recessed during the August break. If
you check the Senate calendar for August, you will find a succession of
days dedicated to "
pro forma business," which means “keeping the president from doing something stupid.”
To
underscore their resolve, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), a stalwart
conservative and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee,
added that there is “no way” the Senate would consider confirming a new attorney general if Sessions were fired.
If Trump fires Sessions, Republicans now have a position from which to oppose him.
3. The Mueller Firewall
Two Senate Republicans have gone further to protect Mueller past August.
Thom Tillis, a hard-right Republican from North Carolina, has joined with Delaware Democrat Chris Coons in
co-sponsoring legislation allowing the special counsel to make a legal challenge to any dismissal that would be reviewed by a three-judge panel.
Asked
by Fox News if the measure was intended to protect Mueller from being
fired by Trump, Tillis said, “There's no question that it is.”
Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham joined Democrats Cory Booker, Sheldon Whitehouse and Richard Blumenthal in introducing the
Special Counsel Independence Protection Act.
“Any
effort to go after Mueller could be the beginning of the end of the
Trump presidency unless Mueller did something wrong,” Graham told
reporters when introducing the bill.
If Trump does fire Mueller, the Republicans have established a strategy for separating themselves from the White House.
4. The Pivot to Taxes
Senate
Republicans are ignoring Trump’s insistence that they continue the
party’s failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Majority
Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan say they are moving
on to tax legislation, which they feel offers a better chance of
success.
Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) rejected Trump's call,
saying, “We’re
not going back to health care. We’re in tax now. As far as I’m
concerned, they shot their wad on health care and that’s the way it is.
I’m sick of it.”
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), chairman of the
health committee, is working with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and
Democrats on potential measures to shore up, not repeal, the Affordable
Care Act.
When Trump threatened the health care plans of Congress if the Senate didn’t heed his demand, Republicans
called his bluff. He predictably moved on to other obsessions.
5. The 2020 Escape Hatch
The
New York Times reported that interviews with 75 Republicans at every level of the party reveal “
widespread uncertainty about
whether Mr. Trump would be on the ballot in 2020 and little doubt that
others in the party are engaged in barely veiled contingency planning.”
Pence has set up a presidential political action committee, the first sitting vice president to do so.
Pence’s
outraged reaction to the
Times story
only underscored how threatening the perception of post-Trump planning
is to the White House. Yet post-Trump planning is visible everywhere.
Conservative Republicans with presidential ambitions, like Ben Sasse and
Tom Cotton, are cultivating donors and advisers as if there were no
Republican incumbent in the White House.
Rep. Charles Dent, a
senior Republican from Pennsylvania and a relative moderate, said many
in the party would welcome Trump’s exit.
“For some, it is for
ideological reasons, and for others it is for stylistic reasons,” Dent
said, complaining about the “exhausting” amount of “instability, chaos
and dysfunction” surrounding Trump.
Six months ago, the
Republicans gave Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt. Now they doubt
he will benefit them, and they are acting accordingly.
